10 pieces
Energy
Closing reliable power stations before the replacements exist, the gas shortfall, the cost of the transition, and who pays for it on the power bill.
New EnergyAre we closing the power stations before the replacements are built?AEMO says supply holds to 2030. After that, with Yallourn, Eraring and Gladstone gone, the margin rests on uncommitted projects, and Snowy 2.0, offshore wind and gas supply are late.EnergyThe $275 promise and the power billLabor pledged to cut power bills by $275 by 2025. Bills rose by double digits instead, softened only by taxpayer-funded rebates. A signature promise, unmet.EnergyRenewables, firming and the real cost of the transitionCount transmission, storage, firming and backup and the 'cheapest generation' is not the cheapest reliable system. Costs are deferred into future network charges.EnergyGas, energy security and the interventionsPrice caps and a mandatory code shielded households short-term — but risk chilling the investment needed to keep the lights on through the transition.EnergyThe 43% target and the net-zero arithmeticHitting 82% renewables by 2030 needs a build-and-transmission rate far above what's been achieved. A target reachable only by brute cost or reliability compromise.EnergyThe poles and wires the targets depend onThe 2026 ISP cut the transmission task, not the backlog. Far more kilometres came off the plan because they were no longer needed than because they were built.EnergyThe smelters on life supportEnergy-intensive processing now depends on public support to stay open. Either the subsidy is permanent, or the capacity leaves.EnergyThe nuclear ban and the Greens vetoAustralia is among the only G20 economies to legally prohibit nuclear power. Ruling out proven zero-emissions baseload narrows the transition to a costlier path.EnergyThe Safeguard Mechanism and industrial competitivenessDeclining baselines on heavy industry risk exporting emissions and jobs offshore — carbon leakage dressed as a domestic win.VictoriaThe gas ban and electrificationBanning gas in new homes accelerates decarbonisation and raises questions about cost and choice.
~15 GWcoal and gas due to retire in 10 years (AEMO ESOO, Aug 2026)
2030-31first NSW and Victorian reliability breach on committed projects
$2bn → $12bnSnowy 2.0, 2017 estimate to 2023 reset
-$275promised by 2025
+double digitactual bill rises
rebatemasked the gap
$billionstransmission blow-outs
firmingthe hidden cost
reliabilityrisk as coal exits
cap2022–23 gas price
codemandatory conduct
warningsAEMO/ACCC supply
82%renewables by 2030
behindrequired build rate
AEMOthe ISP reality
~6,000kmISP transmission requirement to 2050
~3,500kmcommitted or anticipated, underway
82%renewables target it underpins
$2.5bnTomago support, 10 years
~$135mNyrstar smelters
~40%of national aluminium at one plant
bannedby law
G20near-unique
Greenskeep the veto
decliningbaselines
trade-exposedsteel, aluminium
leakagethe offshore risk