25 pieces

The Economy

The big economic questions: living standards going backwards per person, rates and the cost of living, the housing crisis, tax, and the productivity collapse underneath it all.

Rates and the cost of living

The EconomyIs Albanese government spending pushing up your interest rates?The RBA has lifted rates four times in 2026, to 4.60%. How much is down to government spending? What the Reserve Bank, ABS and Budget data show.

4.60%cash rate, Sep 2026

+$364a month on $600k

26.9%spending share of GDP

6 min read The EconomyThe per-capita recession no one campaigned onStrip out population growth and living standards went backwards through 2023–24. An economy that only grows by adding people is running to stand still.

7 qtrsGDP per capita falling (approx.)

≈0%per-person growth

#1driver: population, not productivity

19 min read The EconomyReal incomes and the household recessionAfter inflation, tax and mortgages, real household income per person fell by one of the largest margins in the OECD. This is the reality beneath the 'soft landing'.

worstin OECD (approx.)

↓ realdisposable income p.c.

2+ yrsof going backwards

17 min read The EconomyInflation, the RBA and the rate-rise cycleThe cash rate went from 0.10% to above 4%. How much pain was global, how much domestic — and did government spending fight the Reserve Bank or help it?

0.1→4%+cash rate cycle

7.8%peak CPI (approx.)

18 min read The EconomyAnatomy of the cost-of-living crisisThe squeeze concentrated in non-discretionary essentials — housing, energy, food, insurance. Temporary rebates mask a structural cost problem that outlasts them.

essentialsled the rise

temporarynature of relief

structuralnature of costs

18 min read The EconomyThe savings buffer ran outThe buffer built in 2020-21 was spent across 2022-24 to sustain consumption while real incomes fell. The ratio has since stabilised and ticked up.

6.5%saving ratio, Jun-2026 quarter

↑up from 6.4% in Mar-2026

2022–24when the buffer was drawn down

18 min read The EconomyThe insurance shock nobody legislatedHome and motor premiums rose far faster than CPI, concentrated in the regions least able to absorb them.

1.61mhouseholds in affordability stress (15%)

7.2%premium growth p.a. 2010-25 vs wages 3.1%

2.4%ABS insurance CPI — the divergence

18 min read The EconomyGroceries, food inflation and market powerFood prices climbed fast and hit the poorest hardest. Inquiries into the supermarket duopoly followed — but the structural cost drivers went unaddressed.

regressivehits low incomes most

duopolyunder inquiry

energy+labourcost drivers unmet

Housing

The EconomyThe housing affordability emergencyPrice-to-income ratios sit near record highs and the deposit hurdle now takes many years to clear. A generation is being locked out of ownership.

recordprice-to-income

10+ yrsto a deposit (approx.)

1.2mhomes 'Accord' target

19 min read The EconomyRents, mortgages and housing-cost stressAdvertised rents rose roughly 30–40% from their trough; vacancies hit multi-decade lows. Housing costs are the single biggest driver of the squeeze.

+30–40%advertised rents (approx.)

~1%vacancy rate lows

#1driver of the squeeze

18 min read The EconomyThe 1.2 million homes arithmeticThe Accord target needs a build rate the industry has not delivered in any recent period, from a sector whose productivity has fallen for decades.

173,400completions, year to Mar-2026

240,000required run-rate a year

112,400cumulative shortfall, first 21 months

18 min read The EconomyHelp to Buy, the HAFF and the supply-side gapThe flagship housing funds subsidise demand or spend only investment returns. Demand-side help into a supply-constrained market pushes prices up, not access up.

returns onlyHAFF spends

off-budgetfund structure

demandnot supply, boosted

18 min read The EconomyRent freezes, negative gearing and the Greens' housing economicsRenters are in real distress — but binding rent controls reduce the supply they're meant to expand. Popular price controls with a self-defeating tail.

rent freezethe proposal

↓ supplythe evidence

neg. gearing+ CGT abolition

Tax

The EconomyBracket creep and the incredible shrinking tax cutInflation pushes workers into higher brackets faster than tax cuts return. A rising personal-tax burden quietly funds the spending ratchet.

recordpersonal-tax share

workerscarry it

16 min read The EconomyThe Stage 3 redesign and the broken promiseAn explicit, repeated pre-election commitment, reversed. Good redistribution or bad faith — and what it does to the credibility of legislated tax settings.

broken'no changes' vow

redrawnevery bracket

precedenttax law isn't safe

17 min read The EconomyThe $3m super tax and taxing unrealised gainsA novel tax on paper gains, with a threshold that isn't indexed. What starts as a tax on the wealthy few reaches far more people as inflation erodes the line.

unrealisedgains taxed

$3mnot indexed

morecaptured over time

18 min read The EconomyThe income tax outlierAustralia leans harder on income tax, and lighter on consumption, than almost any comparable economy - and without indexation the lean deepens by default.

2ndhighest income-tax share in the OECD

0indexation of personal tax brackets

2000last major tax-mix reform

18 min read The EconomyCompany tax and where capital goesThe headline rate sits above the OECD average. Imputation shields domestic investors; it does nothing for the marginal foreign one.

30%headline company tax rate

28.5%effective rate vs OECD 21.9%

imputationworth nothing to a foreign investor

Productivity, work and business

The EconomyThe productivity collapseOutput per hour fell back toward levels of years earlier. Without productivity, real wages cannot durably rise and the whole fiscal projection is built on sand.

↓labour productivity vs trend

~1%assumed long-run (optimistic)

0productivity plan delivered

18 min read The EconomyThe insolvency waveCompany failures reached 14,152 in a single financial year, with construction carrying more than a quarter of them.

14,152insolvencies, FY2025-26

3,472construction failures

~27%construction share of all failures

18 min read The Economy'Closing Loopholes' and the re-regulation of workThe largest expansion of workplace regulation in a generation — multi-employer bargaining, casual conversion, gig rules. Rigidity that can suppress hiring.

biggestIR change in a gen.

gig+casualre-regulated

flexibilitythe trade-off

18 min read The EconomyUnion influence, wages and productivityWages lifted while productivity stalled — breaking the link that makes pay rises sustainable. Bargaining power shifted without output to back it.

wages ↑productivity flat

brokenthe link

inflationthe risk

16 min read The EconomyIndustrial relations, round twoSame Job Same Pay, the right to disconnect and the employee-like provisions carry an ongoing compliance cost that falls hardest on firms without an HR department.

Aug-2025right to disconnect, all employers

pausedreview — for want of case law

SMEwhere the compliance cost lands

18 min read The EconomyThe approvals queueThe delay between a project and a shovel is itself a policy setting. Reform finally passed in Nov-2025; whether it delivers is the open question.

Nov-2025reform bills passed

30 daysnew streamlined pathway, from Dec-2026

5+ yrsfrom Samuel Review to legislation

18 min read The EconomyForeign investment frictionA country running a persistent current account position depends on imported capital. Screening it has a price.

35 daysmedian FIRB processing time

46%decided within 30 days (target 50%)

3xestablished-dwelling fees, from Apr-2024